Tuesday, 12 April 2011

The title run-in explained

The season is nearly at an end and only one of two teams can win the title now. In the driving seat are our very own AFC Totton. The Stags are 8 points clear of second-placed Sholing, who are the only team who could catch Totton and steal the title from them. So here is how the title race could pan out.

Totton sit proudly atop the league table on 91 points. Sholing are 8 points behind on 83. Totton have 3 games remaining, whilst Sholing have 4 to go. If Totton win all 3 they will finish the season as league champions with 100 points, the same total they achieved last season but agonisingly missed out on the title to Windsor & Eton by 1 point. Totton only need 4 points from their final 3 games to win the title. Anything less and they will be relying on Sholing dropping points as well. The following scenarios this weekend will/should result in a Totton title victory:

Totton - North Leigh (A) - Win
Sholing - Yate Town (A) - Lose/Draw

If Sholing lose it will leave them 11 points adrift. If Yate hold them to a draw, they will be 10 points behind. With The Boatmen having only 3 games remaining and a maximum of 9 points available, a gap of 10 or 11 points will make Totton's lead unassailable as They could lose their last 2 games and Sholing could win their last 3 games and not be able to catch them.

Totton - North Leigh (A) - Draw
Sholing - Yate Town (A) - Lose

In this case Totton would be 9 points clear of Sholing. This would mean the best Sholing could do is finish the season level on points with Totton, but The Stags have a vastly superior goal difference. Sholing would therefore have to win all their remaining 3 games by an aggregate of something like 30-0 whilst also needing Totton to lose their last 2 games to take top spot on goal difference.

After this weekend, if the gap is 8 points or less, chances are the title race will go right down to the final day of the season. Anyway, hopefully for the Stags that won't be the case. 4 points is all that's required from their final 3 games to win the league and, based on their outstanding form in 2011 that has seen them fail to win just twice in their last 20 games, you'd put your house on them achieving it.

But anyway, what do I know? Let's just let them get there themselves.

No comments:

Post a Comment